Shaken up or still studying? Student performance after the Central Italy earthquake

Natural hazards and disasters have diverse impacts on populations worldwide in different ways, including significant effects on students and educational systems. While the effects of COVID-19 on students have been extensively explored, less attention has been given to the impacts of disasters at the NUTS (nomenclature of territorial units for statistics)-3 level, particularly in Western European countries. This study investigates the effects of the 2016 Central Italy earthquake on the learning outcomes of primary school students using standardised test scores at the NUTS-3 level provided by INVALSI (Istituto Nazionale per la Valutazione del Sistema Educativo di Istruzione e di Formazione). Using a quasi-experimental design, we analyse the data through a dual methodological approach that combines synthetic difference-in-differences (SDID) and event study methodologies. The findings reveal a significant negative impact of the earthquake on the test scores of second-year primary school students, while effects on fifth-year students are not statistically significant. Notably, the negative impact persists for approximately two years, highlighting the enduring educational consequences of disasters. This case study offers policy implications for educational systems in the aftermath of an earthquake, as well as a quantitative background for comparative research on education in Europe.