From democratic backsliding to political violence: evidence from Israel

This study examines whether democratic backsliding increases public legitimization of, versus willingness to engage in – political violence against public officials. We draw on two nationally representative surveys (N = 1200 each) conducted at pivotal democratic junctures: one during relative institutional stability and another amid a severe constitutional crisis. This design captures real-time shifts in political attitudes during an actual episode of democratic decline. Findings show that while legitimization of violence against public officials rose significantly during backsliding, this attitudinal shift did not translate into greater willingness to commit violent acts. Instead, democratic erosion reshaped patterns of non-violent political engagement: opposition supporters and minority groups became more politically mobilized, while government supporters grew less engaged. This study offers two contributions. First, it shows that democratic backsliding expands the moral boundaries of legitimized political violence without directly increasing violent behavioural intentions. Second, it distinguishes between the acceptance of political violence and the willingness to act, highlighting a critical gap between normative support and behavioural escalation. These findings challenge conventional assumptions about the consequences of democratic backsliding, suggesting that it primarily reshapes moral landscapes rather than precipitating violent behaviour, with asymmetrical effects across political and ethnic groups. Policy and research-related implications are discussed.