Regional Elite Numeracy Formation in Sub-Saharan Africa During the 17th to 19th Century and Its Path-Dependent Relationship with Today’s Health Outcomes

Is there a relationship between early elite numeracy and today’s health outcomes in SubSaharan Africa? Using subnational data from 44 countries, we find that regions with higher elite numeracy during the 17th to 19th centuries now have higher life expectancy and lower malaria prevalence. We employ an instrumental variable approach utilising proximity to historical centre as an exogenous source of variation in elite numeracy diffusion. We supplement this with robustness checks controlling for African-region fixed effects, numeracy levels today and choice of century. The relationship persists even after including historical, geographical, and contemporary covariates, including GNI per capita, slavery intensity, colonial infrastructure, historical population density, coastal proximity, natural resource endowments, and current population distribution. To isolate the effect of European influence in the relationship, we examine the effect of colonial missions, and our findings suggest that African elite numeracy formation still plays a crucial role. We investigate the various channels of path dependence and find that elite numeracy has a persistent and independent relationship with current health outcomes, although early numeracy patterns did not entirely predetermine regional health differences.