Can climate adaptation finance survive denialist governments? Lessons from Brazil

Climate adaptation exhibits epistemic and operational ambiguity due to its close association with development policies. While this challenges adaptation finance tracking, it may potentially reduce its exposure to political opposition. This article analysis the volume, distribution and evolution of public adaptation finance in Brazil during the first implementation cycle of its National Adaptation Plan (2016–2020), a period characterized by political instability and rise of climate denialist discourses at the federal level – especially from 2019 onwards, when President Jair Bolsonaro took office. Using an original dataset combining domestic federal budget and international bilateral and multilateral financial flows, the study finds that public adaptation finance totalled US$ 992.8 million over the period, of which 81% came from domestic sources. Total adaptation finance was more than 40 times lower than disaster-related monetary losses, and corresponded to only 0.008% of Brazil’s GDP. During Bolsonaro’s climate denialist government, NAP-related budget expenditures decreased, while international adaptation finance increased. The largest decrease in NAP-related expenditures occurred between 2019 and 2020 (−43.7%), when Bolsonaro’s government was effectively in charge of budget execution. In contrast, domestic adaptation finance remained relatively stable under the Rousseff and Temer administrations (2016–2018), despite fiscal and political constraints. Findings suggest that NAP expenditures which were intertwined within development budgets were preserved from larger reductions under climate denialism. Results contribute to emerging understandings of how public adaptation finance behaves in the face of denialist discourses and disputes on adaptation framing, and address a gap in the literature regarding data availability on the role of domestic adaptation finance. Key policy insightsDomestic adaptation finance is closely embedded within development-aimed national budgets, which may contribute to sustaining some adaptation-related expenditures during periods of climate denialism.Domestic public budgets are central to adaptation finance resilience: with 81% of public adaptation finance in Brazil originating from domestic sources between 2016 and 2020, national budgets constitute a primary pillar of adaptation finance.Denialist discourses affect domestic and international adaptation finance differently. In Brazil, domestic adaptation finance declined during the Bolsonaro administration (2019–2020), while international adaptation finance increased, suggesting a rebalancing of funding sources rather than a uniform suppression of adaptation finance. Domestic adaptation finance is closely embedded within development-aimed national budgets, which may contribute to sustaining some adaptation-related expenditures during periods of climate denialism. Domestic public budgets are central to adaptation finance resilience: with 81% of public adaptation finance in Brazil originating from domestic sources between 2016 and 2020, national budgets constitute a primary pillar of adaptation finance. Denialist discourses affect domestic and international adaptation finance differently. In Brazil, domestic adaptation finance declined during the Bolsonaro administration (2019–2020), while international adaptation finance increased, suggesting a rebalancing of funding sources rather than a uniform suppression of adaptation finance.