Commercialization patterns and the association between temperature changes and prices of beans, corn and tortillas in 37 cities in Mexico from 2011 to 2023

Climate-related shocks to agricultural production and food availability can disrupt markets, impact supply and storage systems, and lead to increases in agricultural commodity prices. For this reason, the objective of the present study is to assess the association between temperature changes and prices of beans, corn and tortillas in Mexico during the period 2011–2023. We evaluated consumer prices using monthly panel data from points of sale in 37 cities in Mexico. Additionally, we identified commercialization patterns for corn and beans to construct relevant temperature measures based on the states of origin supplying each destination city. Fixed-effects models with an autoregressive term of first order AR(1) disturbance models with the inclusion of lagged climate variables were estimated to control for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity in panel data while accounting for serial correlation in the remainder disturbances. The preliminary results indicate that a 1°C increase in relevant maximum temperature in production areas is associated with a 0.89% increase in corn prices and a 0.55% increase in corn tortilla prices. In contrast, a 1°C increase in relevant minimum temperature in production areas is associated with a 0.32% decrease in corn prices and a 0.27% decrease in corn tortilla prices. These findings highlight the sensitivity of staple food prices to climatic variability and underscore the importance of safeguarding food price stability and affordability under rising temperature scenarios. Further steps consider estimates for bean prices and will allow for a comparative assessment across staple commodities in the final version of the study.'This work was supported by the Wellcome Trust [310024/Z/24/Z]. Potential climate change effects on food security, nutrition, and health of the Mexican population. Co-design integrated policy measures. January 2024 '