Corn and bean production, rural prices and climate change in Mexico from 2003 to 2023

Corn and bean production in Mexico, including rainfed and irrigated modalities, has been affected due to rising temperatures and droughts, and is at risk due to climate change. The impact of climate variables on the production and how this affects the prices of these crops is unclear, so this study analyzed corn and bean production and prices, and their association with temperature and precipitation changes in Mexico from 2003 to 2023. Data from the Agri-food and Fisheries Information Service was analyzed. Overall, corn production decreased, mainly in the Northern region. Increases in the price of corn and reductions in its production during 2011-2013 may be due to a drought that affected the country. Fixed effects regression models at the municipality level, controlling for economic and sociodemographic variables, show that a 1°C increase in maximum temperature was associated with a reduction in the production of crops (-45.4% white corn, -59.9% yellow corn and -64.6% beans) and an increase in rural prices (13.9% white corn and 22.8% beans). No association was found between temperature changes and yellow corn price. Alternatively, to account for potential endogeneity between production and price, Two-stage least squares models with lagged climate variables (temperature and precipitation) as instruments were estimated. Climate variables were strongly correlated to the production of corn and beans, but instrumented production (controlling for endogeneity) was not always associated with the rural price, suggesting external paths or variables that determine prices. It is essential to implement actions that mitigate climate change’s impact on the production and prices of basic crops.'This work was supported by the Wellcome Trust [310024/Z/24/Z]. Potential climate change effects on food security, nutrition, and health of the Mexican population. Co-design integrated policy measures. January 2024 '