the China–Africa trade

This study employs multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis, integrating Eora and UNCTAD data from 1990 to 2021. It goes beyond aggregate trade indicators by decomposing China-African trade into domestic and foreign value-added components. Our research makes key contributions: First, value capture remains asymmetric: African economies exhibit stronger forward participation in upstream segments, whereas China retains a larger share of downstream, manufacturing-intensive value added. Second, bilateral trade deepening is associated with persistent sectoral concentration in many African economies, in contrast to China’s broader industrial diversification. Third, these structural configurations display substantial path dependence, with limited convergence in relative value capture over time. Fourth, distinct components of value capture exhibit systematic associations with differences in GDP composition across country groups, linking trade structure to macroeconomic patterns without implying causal effects. These findings offer valuable insights into the debates surrounding global value chains and South-South cooperation, while also providing evidence-based policy implications aimed at enhancing value retention and fostering sustainable economic partnerships. These findings are closely aligned with the scope of the journal.