Auburn Coherence Framework v1.2 — February 2026 Prediction Verification: Seven-Region Global Assessment

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Authors: Ryan Fields
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Abstract

This report verifies predictions issued by the Auburn Coherence Framework v1.2 on February 5, 2026 against observed meteorological events through February 28, 2026 across seven global regions: Australia, China, United States, Western Europe, Middle East, South America, and Southeast Asia. Of 28 discrete predictions assessed, 20 were confirmed or confirmed early (71.4%), five exhibited partial verification with correct mechanism identification, and three remain within open prediction windows. No predictions were contradicted by observed outcomes. Events covered by framework predictions were associated with an estimated USD $12–15 billion in combined economic losses and more than 200 fatalities. The report includes compound risk verification, coherence value calibration analysis, and lead-time assessment relative to operational warning systems. The Auburn Coherence Framework applies geometric constraint analysis to atmospheric dynamics and is independently developed with no institutional affiliation. CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 (same as all your other Auburn docs)

Fields of Study & Subjects

Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations Climate variability and models Disaster Management and Resilience

Publication details

Journal / source
Figshare
Publication date
1 March 2026
Language
EN