Spatio-temporal dynamics and future projections of carbon storage in Ziwuling, China, under rapid urbanization

The Ziwuling region, a critical ecological barrier on the Loess Plateau, was analyzed using land use and land cover (LULC) data from 1990, 2005, and 2020 to assess three decades of carbon storage dynamics via five methods: land use classification and transfer matrix, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) model, the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. Results showed a net decline of approximately 4.31 million tons in carbon storage over the past fifteen years, with Yintai, Xifeng, and Dingbian experiencing the steepest losses, while a Y-shaped growth corridor has emerged centered on Huachi County. Four 2035 scenario simulations-Natural development priority (ND), Arable land protection priority (AP), Ecological protection priority (EP), and Urban development priority (UD), suggest further declines relative to 2020, decreasing by approximately 3.75 million tons, 3.48 million tons, 1.29 million tons, and 5.04 million tons respectively. These trends highlight the region’s severe challenges in meeting China’s carbon peaking and neutrality targets. The study explored the causes of this decline from three perspectives: driving factors, ecosystem structure, and ecological protection measures, and proposes four strategies to enhance carbon storage by integrating urban development with ecological protection via scientific land-use-planning and eco-compensation-policies. These strategies provide guidance for other ecologically sensitive regions globally. This study provides the first multi-model assessment of the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon storage in the Ziwuling region.Identification of critical areas with significant carbon storage changes over the past three decades, with major losses in Yintai District, Xifeng District, and Dingbian County, and a Y-shaped growth corridor around Huachi County.Scenario simulations indicate continued carbon storage decline by 2035, posing major challenges to carbon peak and neutrality targets.Driving mechanisms are analyzed and integrated strategies are proposed to balance urban development and ecological protection. This study provides the first multi-model assessment of the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon storage in the Ziwuling region. Identification of critical areas with significant carbon storage changes over the past three decades, with major losses in Yintai District, Xifeng District, and Dingbian County, and a Y-shaped growth corridor around Huachi County. Scenario simulations indicate continued carbon storage decline by 2035, posing major challenges to carbon peak and neutrality targets. Driving mechanisms are analyzed and integrated strategies are proposed to balance urban development and ecological protection.