AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION INTO THE STRATEGIC IMPACT OF RECIPROCAL TRADE COUNTERMEASURES ON U.S. ECONOMIC RESILIENCE AND MANUFACTURING RE-INDUSTRIALIZATION

The 2025 U.S. “reciprocal tariff” policy has intensified global trade frictions, triggering retaliatory countermeasures that reshape supply chains and industrial dynamics. Whether such protectionist strategies can sustainably revive domestic manufacturing or instead undermine macroeconomic stability remains an open empirical question. This study investigates the nonlinear effects of reciprocal trade countermeasures on U.S. manufacturing performance and economic resilience using a 13-dimensional monthly panel dataset. We construct composite manufacturing and macroeconomic indices via the Entropy Weight Method (EWM), examine policy–economy linkages using Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) and Pearson correlations, and model dynamic impacts through a heterogeneous machine learning framework combining XGBoost and Support Vector Regression (SVR). Empirical results show that retaliatory trade measures significantly disrupt intermediate input supplies and raise domestic production costs, offsetting short-term gains from tariff protection. High-precision forecasts further indicate that international retaliation largely neutralizes the intended reindustrialization effects. The findings suggest that sustainable manufacturing revitalization requires structural investment and innovation-driven policies rather than reliance on tariff barriers alone.