Analysis of Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Cultivated Land in the Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Analyzing spatiotemporal changes in cultivated land in the downstream region of the Yangtze River Economic Belt helps safeguard regional arable land resources. It provides guidance and reference for local governments in formulating relevant land policies. Using ArcGIS 10.8 software, combined with the land use transition matrix and gravity center shift model, can reveal the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of cultivated land and its change patterns within the study area. The research findings indicate that cultivated land underwent conversion across all periods. Specifically, the areas of cultivated land converted out during 2000–2005, 2005–2010, 2010–2015, 2015–2020, and 2020–2023 were 10,868 km², 10,549 km², 10,000 km², 6,588 km², and 41,129 km², respectively. Notably, only during 2020–2023 was there a net gain in cultivated land area, with an inflow of 42,126 km² from land conversion. Between 2000 and 2023, the centroid of cultivated land also underwent a certain degree of migration. In the first phase from 2000 to 2010, the centroid of cultivated land area shifted northwestward by 6.68 km; in the second phase from 2010 to 2023, it gradually migrated southward.