Synthesis Impact of Carbon-Dioxide Emissions on the Agricultural Production of ASEAN: Econometrics Panel Data Analysis

Climate change, driven by increasing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, has complex and context-specific implications for agricultural productivity, particularly in developing regions such as Southeast Asia. This study analyzes the relationship between CO₂ emissions and agricultural production across 11 ASEAN countries over the period 2000–2022, while controlling for key production and institutional factors, including agricultural capital, labor, land, energy use, freshwater withdrawals, fertilizer consumption, domestic credit, and government effectiveness. Using panel data econometric techniques, the analysis employs a fixed-effects model (FE-OLS) alongside the Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel Granger causality test to account for both cross-sectional heterogeneity and dynamic interactions. The results indicate that a 1% increase in CO₂ emissions is associated with a 0.0596% increase in agricultural output, suggesting a potential carbon fertilization effect under current conditions. The findings reveal a statistically significant long-run relationship, with causal linkages running from CO₂ emissions, agricultural capital, energy use, and government effectiveness to agricultural production. These results highlight the importance of considering regional heterogeneity in climate–agriculture interactions and suggest that the effects of CO₂ emissions on agricultural productivity may differ from the predominantly negative patterns reported in global studies. Overall, the study contributes to the literature by providing region-specific empirical evidence for ASEAN economies and offers policy-relevant insights for balancing emission mitigation with strategies aimed at enhancing agricultural resilience and food security.