أثر العجز المالي والتضخم على معدل البطالة في ليبيا: دراسة قياسية باستخدام نموذج ARDL

This study aims to analyze and measure the dynamic impact of the fiscal deficit and inflation on the unemployment rate in Libya during the period (1990–2024), within the context of a rentier economy characterized by sharp fluctuations and recurrent political and structural shocks. The study relies on annual time-series data and employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model due to its ability to distinguish between short-run and long-run effects when variables are integrated of different orders. The results reveal the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the unemployment rate and the economic variables under consideration. The findings also indicate that the fiscal deficit has a statistically significant negative effect on the unemployment rate in both the short and long run, reflecting the expansionary role of fiscal policy; however, this effect is associated with rent-seeking expenditure that does not generate sustainable employment. Regarding inflation, the results show no statistically significant effect in the long run, while a temporary inverse effect is observed in the short run. In addition, the results indicate that economic growth has no significant impact on unemployment, confirming the presence of a non-employment-generating growth pattern in the Libyan economy. Oil revenues exhibit a positive and statistically significant effect on the unemployment rate, whereas a depreciation of the exchange rate is associated with a decline in unemployment due to the expansion of informal economic activities. The study concludes that reducing unemployment in Libya requires comprehensive structural reforms focusing on diversifying the productive base, redirecting fiscal policy toward productive investment, and strengthening institutional stability and economic governance. Keywords: Unemployment; Fiscal Deficit; Inflation; Rentier Economy; ARDL Model