Climate Model–Based Projections of Maximum Temperature Change in Northwestern Libya for the Period 1961–2099 Using Data from Misurata Airport Meteorological Station

The Global Climate Model (GCM) is one of the key tools used in studying the characteristics of future temperature trends. This study aims to project future maximum temperatures for the period 2010–2099, based on observed maximum temperature data from the Misrata Airport Meteorological Station during the baseline period (1961–1990). The projections were conducted using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), relying on two widely recognized climate change scenarios: A2a and B2a. These scenarios were adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, 2000), which provides future projections for climate and environmental conditions based on greenhouse gas emissions The results revealed that eight predictor variables from the GCM have a significant influence on the maximum temperature at Misrata Airport station. Additionally, the findings indicated that the SDSM effectively simulates annual and monthly maximum temperature variations with reasonable accuracy for the validation period (1991–2000). The analysis also demonstrated a clear trend of increasing monthly, seasonal, and annual maximum temperatures in future periods compared to the baseline period. Keywords: Climate Projections, Climate Change, Maximum Temperature, Climate Model, SDSM, GCM.