الأزمة الاقتصادية الروسية: تحليل هيكلي للتطورات الاقتصادية خلال الفترة (1998-2025)

This study aims to analyze the Russian economic crisis over the period 1998–2025 from a structural perspective, by diagnosing the structural imbalances that accompanied the trajectory of economic transformation and assessing the limits of economic recovery in the context of external shocks and geopolitical transformations. The study adopts a descriptive–analytical approach, based on analyzing the evolution of key macroeconomic indicators-such as economic growth, inflation, unemployment, and oil prices-and linking them to both the economic and political contexts, without resorting to quantitative econometric models. The findings reveal that the Russian economic crisis is cumulative and structural in nature, primarily resulting from excessive reliance on the energy sector and weak diversification of the productive base, in addition to the limited scope of deep institutional reforms. The results also indicate that periods of economic recovery were largely associated with rising oil prices and expanded government spending, leading to temporary numerical stability without achieving sustainable structural transformation. Furthermore, the study shows that economic sanctions-particularly after 2014 and 2022-have contributed to deepening the structural constraints of the Russian economy by reducing investment and productivity and restricting technology transfer. The study concludes that Russia’s economic growth prospects up to 2025 will remain limited, reflecting temporary resilience rather than genuine structural recovery. Accordingly, the study recommends adopting comprehensive structural reforms focused on diversifying the productive base, strengthening the role of non-extractive sectors, and improving the efficiency of economic policies, in order to reduce the fragility of the Russian economy and enhance its capacity to achieve sustainable long-term growth. Keywords: Russian economic crisis; structural analysis; rentier economy; economic sanctions; economic recovery.