Integrating Long-Term Climate Trend Analysis and Household Socioeconomic Vulnerability to Assess Climate Stress in the Niger Delta Floodplain (Ughelli, Nigeria)

Background: Climate change increasingly affects livelihoods and socioeconomic stability in climate-vulnerable regions, particularly across Sub-Saharan Africa. However, limited empirical research links long-term climatic trends with household-level perceptions and socioeconomic outcomes in medium-sized urban communities. Understanding how climate variability translates into perceived stress and livelihood challenges is essential for developing locally grounded climate adaptation and resilience strategies. Objectives: This study aims to assess climate change-induced stress and its socio-economic impacts on households in Ughelli, Delta State, Nigeria, by examining public awareness, the occurrence of climate stressors, and the effects on livelihoods in a localized context. Methods: climate change, occurrence of stress events, and socio-economic impacts. Remote sensing datasets, including CHIRPS rainfall and ERA5-Land temperature data from 1983–2022, were analysed using Google Earth Engine. Annual means were calculated, and trends assessed with the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Descriptive statistics summarized survey responses, while Python and SPSS were used for data processing and statistical analysis. This mixed-methods approach allowed triangulation of subjective perceptions and objective climatic trends, providing a comprehensive understanding of localized climate impacts. Results: Survey results indicated that residents were aware of climate change and recognized flooding and heatwaves as frequent stress-inducing events, particularly affecting the elderly and low-income households. Respondents reported that climate stress negatively influenced agricultural productivity and household income. Remote sensing analysis revealed a statistically significant increasing trend in mean annual temperature (0.018°C per year, p