Natural Gas Transit from West Africa to Europe (Africa Atlantic Gas Pipeline) to Maximize Energy Security and Transit Revenues by 2050

The Africa-Atlantic Gas Pipeline (AAGP), also known as the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline, is a major transcontinental infrastructure project poised to connect West African gas reserves with North African networks and European markets, potentially reshaping regional energy dynamics, boosting economic development, and enhancing energy security. Its strategic importance has grown amid Europe’s urgent need to diversify away from Russian gas imports and Africa’s dual challenge of resource-based development and sustainable local energy access. Despite increasing interest, there is a lack of integrated, quantitative evaluation of competing gas transit strategies considering technical, economic, environmental, and social criteria. This research fills that gap by applying a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making framework (AHP) to assess four transit strategies, highlighting Public-Private Partnerships and revenue-sharing as top options. The study also models Europe’s future gas supply scenarios, showing that while African gas corridors like the AAGP could significantly reduce European dependence on Russian gas, full substitution requires coordinated investments and complementary measures. The findings offer policymakers a transparent, replicable methodology to make evidence-based decisions that align energy security, regional cooperation, and sustainability goals, while recognizing limitations due to data subjectivity and the need for broader impact assessments.