Green Finance and Low-Carbon Economic Development: Moderating Roles of Green Technology Innovation and Government Intervention in China

Using balanced panel data for 30 Chinese provinces from 2005 to 2022, this study investigates the impact of green finance (GF) on low-carbon economic development (LCE), with particular attention to the moderating roles of green technology innovation (GTI) and government intervention intensity (GII). A two-way fixed effects model is employed to control for regional heterogeneity and time effects. The results show that GF significantly promotes LCE. Moreover, GTI strengthens the positive effect of GF on LCE, whereas GII weakens this relationship, indicating that excessive government intervention may reduce the effectiveness of GF in supporting low-carbon development. These findings remain robust across alternative specifications and measurements, and provide policy implications for improving green financial systems and advancing low-carbon transitions in emerging economies.