Research on the Impact of Environmental Regulation on Urban Green Total Factor Productivity

Based on the panel data of 285 Chinese cities from 2012 to 2023, this paper constructs linear and nonlinear regression models to empirically analyze the real impact of environmental regulations on the Green Total Factor Productivity (GTFP) of Chinese cities, and conducts heterogeneity analysis. The results show that the impact of environmental regulation on urban GTFP is U-shaped. Currently, China's environmental regulation level is relatively low, which is on the left side of the U-shaped curve, indicating that it inhibits green total factor productivity. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that environmental regulations in small and medium-sized cities and megacities exert a suppressive effect on urban GTFP, while their impact on large cities remains inconspicuous. In service-oriented cities, the regulatory suppression effect is notably pronounced, whereas it is insignificant in industrialized cities. The suppressive effect is particularly evident in cities across central and western regions, but less pronounced in eastern cities.