Impacto del Cambio Climático en la Valuación Inmobiliaria: Efectos de Inundaciones en Tuxtla Gutiérrez, Chiapas, México

This article analyzes the relationship between climate risk associated with flooding and real estate valuation in Tuxtla Gutiérrez, Chiapas, Mexico, a mid-sized city that faces recurrent flooding episodes during the rainy season. The research employs a qualitative-descriptive approach, based on the analysis of historical, cartographic, and documentary information, as well as a review of official records and journalistic reports on flooding events. From these sources, urban areas with recurring flooding are identified, revealing spatial patterns associated with proximity to rivers, streams, and areas with deficiencies in hydraulic infrastructure. These patterns are then linked to preliminary observations of the local real estate market, considering risk perception and its potential influence on property valuations. The results demonstrate that exposure to flood risk negatively impacts the perception, stability, and appreciation potential of urban land and housing, affecting both property owners and the real estate market in general. The study observes that the recurrence of extreme hydrometeorological events tends to influence buying, selling, and investment decisions, even though this factor is not always explicitly reflected in published prices. It also acknowledges that the absence of climate risk criteria in traditional real estate valuation processes limits the ability to anticipate economic and social losses. Finally, the study underscores the importance of incorporating risk management and climate change considerations into urban planning policies and real estate valuation models as a fundamental strategy for strengthening urban resilience and promoting more sustainable territorial development.