Methodology of Actuarial Modeling of Insurance Rates of Liability of Tour Operators Based on Expert Assessments

The development of the tourism industry and the increase in the number of cases of non-fulfillment of obligations by tour operators have necessitated professional liability insurance. However, the process of calculating insurance tariffs is complicated by the lack of statistical information on violations, since tour operators are not interested in collecting and systematizing it. To solve this problem, it is proposed to use the method of expert assessments instead of statistical data. For this purpose, it is necessary to develop mathematical models that will allow, based on the opinions of experts, to assess risks and calculate economically reasonable tariffs. To minimize the subjectivity of this approach, it is recommended to coordinate with stakeholders not only the amount of the insurance premium, but also the choice of the array of expert data used. The tariffs calculated in this way should be considered as preliminary. As up-to-date insurance statistics accumulate, they should be adjusted based on an adaptive approach, which will gradually move from expert assessments to sound statistical data and create a sustainable system for protecting the rights of consumers of travel services.