Assessing the relationship between critical imports and regional industrial development based on panel data analysis

Growing sanctions External restrictions and subsequent logistical disruptions in import supplies pose risks to the sustainable development of the national and regional economic systems of the Russian Federation. In this regard, the development of adapted models for studying the prospects for economic development in the context of the new emerging macroeconomic agenda is becoming an extremely important task. This article is devoted to solving this problem, where an attempt is made to expand the existing range of methodological approaches to studying the impact of critical imports on regional development within the framework of the use of tools based on panel data analysis. The aim of the work is to develop methodological approaches to identifying critically important product nomenclatures imported from abroad and to develop models that determine their impact on the prospects for industrial development of regions. The hypothesis adopted is the assumption of a significant level of impact of critical imports of regions on the sustainability of their development in the context of sanctions pressure. Based on the results of the study, the main components that determine the substantive environment and conceptual basis for identifying critical imports of a region are identified; A methodological toolkit was developed for analyzing the relationship between critical product lines and the economic growth of regional economic systems under external constraints. It was shown that a 1 million ruble reduction in gross critical imports leads to a 750,000 ruble slowdown in industrial production in the studied regional group.