The Never-Ending Yugoslav Conflict: Ethnicity and Historical Memory in the Serbia–Kosovo Negotiations

This article analyzes the factors that explain the failure of attempts to normalize relations between Kosovo and Serbia, with emphasis on the recent agreements mediated by the European Union. It starts from the following research question: how do ethnic-identity elements influence the causal mechanisms present in the normalization negotiations between Kosovo and Serbia? To answer it, the qualitative method of Process Tracing is adopted, with the objective of identifying how perceptions, discourses and symbolic interpretations shape the behavior of the actors and interfere in the results. The empirical analysis identifies four main causal mechanisms, related to semantic divergence on the terms of the agreement, the symbolic memory of the territory, the absence of mutual trust and the limitations of international mediation. The findings demonstrate that the standoff between Kosovo and Serbia stems not exclusively from legal or strategic factors, but from deep-seated disputes over identity, history and mutual recognition. The study concludes that, in conflicts with high symbolic and ethnic load, international mediation fails when it disregards the cultural codes in dispute. The methodological approach adopted contributes to evidence subjective causalities and can be applied to other cases of diplomatic impasses marked by identity conflicts.