Manila Bay Reclamation and Community Resilience: A Sustainability and Adaptive-Capacity Assessment for Coastal Urban Development in Metro Manila, Philippines

Land reclamation has re-emerged as a strategic response to land scarcity, urban congestion, and infrastructure demand in coastal megacities. In Manila Bay—an internationally significant natural harbor and socio-ecological system—reclamation initiatives promise spatial expansion and economic development but may also intensify ecological degradation and climate risk exposure. This study reframes an MMEP capstone manuscript into a journal-format sustainability assessment aligned with the DIT.ADS IMRJ research-paper structure. Using a descriptive–analytical design and document-based impact assessment, the paper synthesizes (i) published coastal and climate science, (ii) Philippine environmental and reclamation governance instruments, and (iii) secondary case information on ongoing and proposed Manila Bay projects, including a focused case illustration of Horizon Manila. Findings indicate that reclamation risks are concentrated in four interlinked domains: (1) coastal-process alteration (sediment transport, wave dynamics) that can elevate erosion and flood susceptibility; (2) habitat and water-quality pressures that may reduce ecosystem services and fisheries livelihoods; (3) social equity concerns associated with displacement and livelihood disruption of coastal communities; and (4) governance and policy implementation challenges, including permitting complexity, transparency gaps, and institutional fragmentation. The study argues that reclamation can only be defensible within an integrated coastal management framework that (a) strengthens environmental impact assessment (EIA) and monitoring, (b) applies nature-based solutions and green architecture at the city-district scale, and (c) institutionalizes participatory, equity-centered safeguards. Recommendations include risk-sensitive zoning, ecosystem-service accounting, mandatory climate and sea-level- rise design thresholds, transparent public reporting, and benefit-sharing mechanisms for affected communities.