QUẢN TRỊ TÀI CHÍNH TRONG BỐI CẢNH BẤT ĐỊNH VĨ MÔ: BẰNG CHỨNG TỪ CÁC DOANH NGHIỆP NIÊM YẾT TẠI VIỆT NAM

In the context of macroeconomic uncertainty with high interest rates, persistent inflation and increasing market volatility, corporate financial decisions are no longer affected by a single shock but are the result of the resonance of many simultaneous shocks. This study extends the traditional analytical framework by integrating three central factors – interest rates, inflation and market volatility – to quantify their joint and separate impacts on capital structure, cash flow management, investment, dividends and risk hedging strategies of enterprises. Based on data from listed Vietnamese firms for the period 2015–2024 and a dynamic panel model, the study identifies two core transmission channels: (i) the cost of capital, and (ii) cash flow volatility, which explain the differences in responses by size, industry, and ownership structure. Based on this empirical evidence, the paper proposes a framework for adaptive financial management at the firm level, and provides a package of policy implications to strengthen system stability, limit risk spillover, and support sustainable growth goals.