Parameterization of Satellite Drag Acceleration Without the Use of A Global Thermosphere Model

We introduce a thermosphere-model-agnostic parameterization of time-averaged conditions sampled by satellites in stable Low Earth Orbit (LEO). This method models the total thermospheric mass density or satellite drag acceleration at a given altitude as a linear combination of solar and geomagnetic energy input observables. Using satellite data we demonstrate that this approach results in the successful parameterization over altitudes from ~250 to ~500 km with better than ~15% accuracy. Extrapolation of fit coefficients can maintain this accuracy in support of 7-day forecasts, enabling both improved drag predictions and a more straightforward quantification of uncertainties when provided with predicted energy inputs. This technique can be applied independently for each spacecraft in a constellation without the need for a global thermosphere estimator.