Landscape transformation in tropical monsoonal Wayanad district of Western Ghats, India: Spatiotemporal analysis (1991–2021) and projections using NDVI-based vegetation dynamics

Over the past three decades, Wayanad District in the Western Ghats has undergone notable ecological changes in vegetation, land use, and hydrology. This study uses NDVI-based spatiotemporal analysis to examine vegetation health and land cover dynamics from 1991 to 2021, with future projections for 2031 and 2041 using the CA-ANN model. Results show a significant increase in thick vegetation from 102.93 km² in 2001 to 1015.40 km² in 2021, indicating effective forest regeneration. Light vegetation has correspondingly declined, transforming into denser forest cover. Agricultural zones such as Meenangadi and Panamaram reveal seasonal NDVI fluctuations tied to farming practices. Barren lands, especially those affected by quarrying and urban growth, have varied over time, highlighting the need for targeted restoration. Water bodies show minor spatial variations linked to rainfall and management efforts. Projections indicate stabilization of thick vegetation at 47.51% and a reduction in barren land by 2041. The study underscores the value of NDVI and CA-ANN modelling for predicting land cover change and supports informed land-use planning and conservation to promote ecological resilience in the face of anthropogenic pressures.