LineageSim: A Single-Cell Lineage Simulator with Fate-Aware Gene Expression

Abstract Single-cell lineage data paired with gene expression are critical for developing computational methods in developmental biology. Since experimental lineage tracing is often technically limited, robust simulations are necessary to provide the ground truth for rigorous validation. However, existing simulators generate largely Markovian gene expression, failing to encode the fate bias observed in real biological systems, where progenitor states exhibit early signatures of future commitment. Consequently, they cannot support the training and evaluation of computational methods that model long-range temporal dependencies. We present LineageSim, a generative framework that introduces fate-aware gene expression, where progenitor states carry latent signals of their descendants’ terminal fates. This framework establishes a new class of benchmarks for cell fate prediction algorithms. We validate the presence of these temporal signals by training a logistic regression baseline, which achieves 68.3% balanced accuracy. This confirms that the generated data contain subtle but recoverable fate information, in contrast to existing simulators, where such predictive signals are systematically absent.