Temporary Shock or Lasting Scar? Life Expectancy Trajectories Since COVID-19

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic led to substantial global life expectancy losses. Historically, life expectancy reversals were followed by rapid returns to previous trajectories, but it remains unclear whether this pattern applies to COVID-19. We extend life expectancy estimates through 2024 for 34 high-income countries and quantify annual and cumulative life expectancy deficits by comparing observed life expectancy to counterfactual forecasts based on pre-pandemic trajectories. Five years after the pandemic’s onset, recovery remains incomplete: in 2024, 31 of 34 countries still had lower-than-expected life expectancy. We identify four trajectories: (a) early deficit (largest deficits in 2020 or 2021 with gradual recovery); (b) second wave peak (largest deficits in 2021 with a sharper rebound); (c) late deficit (minimal early impact followed by smaller deficits from 2022 onward); (d) prolonged deficit (smaller but persistent deficits without a sharp peak). In general, countries with severe second-wave peaks (such as the USA and Bulgaria) had the largest 5-year deficits. In contrast, countries that delayed widespread infection (e.g., Norway, Japan) saw later deficits that persisted through 2024, but with lower overall mortality. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 was not a uniform, short-lived mortality shock. Instead, most high-income countries experienced multi-year disruptions, with varied recovery patterns that continue to shape population health five years on.