Quantitative Assessment of Climate Change Effects on Global FoodPrices: Evidence from the North Atlantic Oscillation Index

Abstract Food costs are more significantly impacted by climate change as countries grow. It is well known that climate change has an impact on the productivity of most agricultural goods, but it is unclear how specifically it will affect food costs. The present research explores how the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, a widely used climate indicator, affects food prices around the world. This is achieved by applying a robust bivariate Hurst exponent (robust bHe). The research creates a color map of this coefficient using a window-sliding technique over various intervals of time, displaying an illustration that changes overtime. Additionally, the NAO index and global food prices are examined for causal connections using variable-lag transfer entropy using a window-sliding technique. The results show that notable rises in a number of international food prices for long as well as short periods are associated with significant increases in the NAO index. Furthermore, the causative function of the NAO index in influencing global food costs is confirmed by variable-lag transfer entropy. Is highly recommended as it directly connects the research to actionable outcomes for policymakers and the overarching goal of sustainability and food security. This study provides the first direct evidence of a robust, long-range cross-correlation and causal link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and key global food prices. It introduces a novel, robust methodological framework to visualize this time-varying relationship, offering a critical tool for policymakers and forecasting models.