Two and a Half Decades of Evidence on PTSD Determinants in Conflict Regions of Sub-Saharan Africa A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Abstract Armed conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa has exposed millions of civilians to repeated and severe traumatic events, yet the prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and its associated determinants across the region have not been comprehensively synthesised. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of PTSD and examine its associated factors among conflict-affected adult populations in Sub-Saharan Africa. Methodological quality was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) criteria for cross-sectional and epidemiological studies A systematic search of PubMed, MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, CINAHL, APA PsycINFO, the Cochrane Library, and the WHO Global Index Medicus (including African Index Medicus) was conducted for studies published between January 1, 2000, and May 31, 2025. Observational studies reporting PTSD prevalence among adults aged 18 years or older exposed to armed conflict were included. Study selection followed PRISMA 2020 guidelines, with independent screening by two reviewers. Random-effects meta-analyses with logit transformation were used to pool prevalence estimates, and determinants were synthesised narratively with emphasis on adjusted effect estimates. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I² statistic. Sixty-eight studies comprising 82,021 participants from 13 countries met inclusion criteria. The pooled prevalence of PTSD was 43% (95% CI, 35.9%–50.0%), with substantial heterogeneity (I² = 99.9%). Prevalence was highest among refugees (79%), followed by internally displaced persons (48%) and residents of conflict-affected communities (34%). Female sex was consistently associated with increased odds of PTSD (pooled adjusted odds ratio approximately 2.0), as were comorbid depression or depressive symptoms (AOR range 4.2–9.5). Additional correlates included cumulative trauma exposure, displacement, poor social support, and substance use. Overall, PTSD is highly prevalent among conflict-affected adults in Sub-Saharan Africa, underscoring the need for integrated, context-sensitive mental health strategies to address the enduring psychological consequences of armed conflict in the region.