Phenotypic plasticity evolved for climate variability constrains performance under climate warming

Abstract Phenotypic plasticity allows plants to rapidly respond to changing environments without the need for evolutionary change or migration. While selection can create variation in plasticity across natural populations, these responses are not adaptive in all environments. To predict whether plasticity will be adaptive requires evaluation of its fitness effects across a range of environments, including novel ones. Here, we test how traits and their plasticity vary for genotypes collected across a natural hybrid zone between two tree species with contrasting climatic niches. Fast-growing Populus trichocarpa inhabits maritime environments with relatively warm and stable temperatures, while P. balsamifera inhabits continental environments with cold winters and large temperature variance throughout the year. We planted 44 clonally replicated genotypes into thirteen common gardens and measured vegetative phenology, leaf morphology, stomata morphology and conductance, and photochemistry. Overall, genotypes from colder, more continental environments exhibited higher plasticity. P. balsamifera ancestry was associated with increased plasticity in timing of fall phenology, stomatal conductance, and leaf mass per unit area. We assessed the effects of trait plasticity on fitness estimated as yearly growth across common gardens and found that the plasticity-fitness relationship was often garden-specific, indicating that the planting environment did not consistently mediate plasticity-fitness relationships. When the effects of trait plasticity on growth varied by garden temperature, higher plasticity generally had neutral or negative associations with growth in warmer environments. These results suggest that elevated plasticity evolved in a P. balsamifera genomic background as part of a climate generalist strategy to seasonal temperature variability, but that there is a trade-off between plasticity and growth in warmer environments. Consequently, less-plastic but warm-adapted P. trichocarpa genotypes are likely to have a fitness advantage under warming climates. These results demonstrate that plasticity may sometimes be maladaptive and will not be universally beneficial in a warming world.