Longitudinal Trajectories of Child and Youth Mental Health Symptoms Across Distinct Phases of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A population-based study in Ontario, Canada

Abstract Background Although an expansive body of evidence exists on children’s mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic, it is largely restricted to the early phases and lockdowns. This study examines longitudinal changes in child and youth mental health symptoms across two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with data collection strategically timed to capture variability in pandemic restrictions. Methods A population-based longitudinal study of 1,261 children and youth aged 4–17 years followed prospectively from January 2021 to December 2022, with five waves of data collected in Ontario, Canada. Latent growth curve modelling was used to estimate trajectories of parent-reported mental health symptoms and identify baseline and time-varying covariates associated with variable trajectories. Findings Mental health symptoms were elevated and stable during lockdowns, followed by significant reductions as pandemic restrictions loosened, particularly for oppositional defiant and inattention/hyperactivity symptoms compared to internalizing symptoms. Children without pre-existing clinician diagnosed physical, mental or neurodevelopmental conditions and those not in lockdown at baseline demonstrated relative increases in mental health symptoms during lockdowns; and girls, compared to boys, demonstrated smaller reductions in internalizing symptoms as restrictions loosened. Concurrent and lagged associations between parental distress and children’s mental health symptoms varied across the pandemic. Interpretation Variation in symptom trajectories by mental health domain, gender, pandemic restrictions and pre-existing diagnosed conditions underscores the need for tailored, equity-informed pandemic planning and response. Policies designed to optimize the balance between the need to reduce viral community transmission whilst limiting pandemic lockdowns may mitigate adverse impacts on child and youth mental health. Funding Ontario Ministry of Health