Novel linkage disequilibrium-based genotype-by-environmental interaction method for genomic prediction of cotton yield and fibre quality traits

Abstract Genomic prediction (GP) across diverse environments has a potential to accelerate genetic gain in cotton breeding programs. A major challenge in GP is modelling genotype-by-environment interactions (GEI), which is essential for selecting stable and high-performing genotypes under variable production conditions. However, incorporating GEI into GP models increases the dimensionality and computational complexity, risking complex models that are impractical to use on commercial breeding-scale data sets because of run times and computational demands. This study addresses two primary aims. Firstly, we evaluate the practical benefits of GEI-informed GP for predicting economically important cotton traits. Second, advanced statistical modelling strategies are developed and assessed for integrating genomic and environmental data at scale. We propose a dimensionality reduction approach that combines linkage disequilibrium network analysis with principal component techniques to reduce redundancy while preserving informative variation. Using this reduced dataset, we implement Bayesian linear regression models and, for comparison, deep residual neural networks for genomic prediction. Analyses were conducted on a large multi-environment dataset from the CSIRO cotton breeding program, comprising 3,236 breeding lines, 54 environmental covariates, and 8,049 yield and fibre quality phenotype records collected over 10 years and 9 locations representing 41 year-location combinations. Results demonstrate that generally Bayesian linear regression approaches outperform BG-BLUP models, with all three linear/linear mixed methods providing clearly more reliable performance than the deep learning models. These findings highlight the value of using interpretable statistical models for integrating genomic and environmental information to support selection decisions under diverse environmental conditions.