LOESS and DE-SWAN can induce artifactual “waves” of molecular aging

A growing body of literature has investigated the relationship between age and biomolecular changes, leading to conclusions that aging occurs in discrete molecular "waves." Data summary tools such as LOESS and sliding window analyses like DE-SWAN are common approaches that have gained acceptance in recent years. We demonstrate via simple simulations that these tools can identify non-linear patterns of aging where they do not exist. Specifically, we show that (i) clustering of molecular trajectories using LOESS can lead to artifactual characteristic patterns of molecular aging, (ii) "waves" of aging identified using the combination of LOESS and DE-SWAN in real data are not robust to changes in the underlying age distribution and are not supported by valid permutation testing, and (iii) DE-SWAN alone can generate pronounced "waves" of nonlinear molecular aging in linear data due to differences in statistical power along the age continuum. Our results specifically challenge the statistical support for discrete aging crests inferred in the literature, but do not rule out nonlinear molecular aging or age-associated transitions that may be detectable using other cohorts and statistical models.