The effects of fox movement and landscape heterogeneity on the spread of sarcoptic mange in urban settings

Abstract Context The movement of vertebrate hosts across urbanized landscapes can play a key role in the transmission of direct-contact diseases. Understanding how wildlife hosts move in urban landscapes, and how transmission is affected by their landscape-constrained and disease-altered movements, is imperative for better predicting the spread of disease. Objective We assess how the movement of red foxes ( Vulpes vulpes ) according to landcover type, and their infection status, affect the spread of mange (caused by Sarcoptes scabiei ) in an urbanized landscape. Methods We developed a mange transmission model (MTM) using an agent-based model to compare two movement behaviours of foxes in Scarborough (Ontario, Canada): random and landcover-based. We further assessed the effects of movement on disease transmission by considering the fox’s infection status and comparing a range of movement probability scenarios. We quantified the number of effective contact events and the effective reproduction number ( R e ) according to each scenario. Results We found that both landcover-dependent movement and infection status influenced the spread of mange within fox populations. The number of effective contact events and effective reproduction number R e was greatest when landscape heterogeneity was included in the model and foxes moved through paths of least resistance to movement, and when susceptible and infected foxes had an equal probability of leaving a fragmented habitat patch. Conclusions Our findings suggest that mange spread may be accelerated along movement corridors in fragmented, heterogenous landscapes. As urban areas expand and remnant habitat within these is further lost and animals are relegated to fewer movement pathways, disease transmission may increase.