Global Structural Brain-Age in Adolescence: Application of an Established Method to Short-Interval, Longitudinal Data

Abstract Brain-age estimates from grey matter structure provide a promising tool to examine the neurobiology of mental health. However, whether existing models generalise to longitudinal adolescent data remains unclear. The CentileBrain Global-BrainAGE ‘Lifespan’ Model, was applied to N =138 participants (74 females, 64 males) from the Longitudinal Adolescent Brain Study. Participants completed 2-14 MRI scans between the ages of 12-17 years (752 datapoints). Model fit, prediction accuracy and longitudinal consistency were examined. Results showed moderate-to-good longitudinal consistency and reliability, consistent with high-performing cross-sectional age-to-brain-age correlations in youth cohorts. However, the model systematically overestimated brain-age changes relative to chronological changes, and prediction accuracy was unstable, with the mean absolute error increasing with age. Despite sex-specific brain-age calculations, on average, females showed older brain-ages compared with males. Further, younger adolescents were underpredicted, while older adolescents were overpredicted, indicating that standard model adjustments and assumptions may not be applicable.