Water Scarcity and Territorial Politics: The Geopolitics of the Tigris–Euphrates Basin

The Tigris–Euphrates Basin, shared by Turkey, Syria, and Iraq, lies at the heart of the Middle East’s hydro-geopolitical tensions. Once sustaining the cradle of civilization, the basin now exemplifies how environmental scarcity intersects with territorial politics and power asymmetry. This study examines how water scarcity, driven by climate change, rapid population growth, and large-scale upstream development projects, has redefined inter-state relations and territorial strategies within the basin. Drawing on the framework of hydro-hegemony and political ecology, the analysis explores how Turkey’s control of the headwaters through the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) consolidates its geopolitical influence, while downstream states face increasing dependency and vulnerability. The research highlights the consequences of unilateral dam construction, declining flow volumes, and deteriorating water quality for agriculture, livelihoods, and ecological balance in Iraq and Syria. It also evaluates the limited effectiveness of existing bilateral agreements and the absence of a binding multilateral water-sharing framework. The findings suggest that the basin’s water politics reflect broader patterns of competition, mistrust, and fragmented governance in the Middle East. Without institutionalized cooperation, worsening climatic stress may intensify instability and exacerbate humanitarian challenges. The study concludes that sustainable peace and resource security in the Tigris–Euphrates Basin require a paradigm shift from competitive territorial control toward equitable, basin-wide water governance and shared environmental stewardship.