THE NOT-SO-IMPOSSIBLE TRINITY: ESTIMATING INDIA, RUSSIA AND CHINA’S LONG-RUN TRADE RELATIONS

India, Russia, and China are major powerhouses in the global economy. This trio might look like an impossible trinity, but if it can be made possible, then the global economy might see a surge in its economic growth trajectory. There is a candidate set of factors that might make this impossible trinity possible, but the most impactful endogenous factor would be the international trade relations between these three countries. An improvement in trade relations among these countries could be a consequence of the tariff war initiated by the USA. With this backdrop, a pertinent question arises: What happens to certain indicators of trade in the long run for India, Russia and China? While China is a hostile neighbour to India, experts have shown optimism in improved bilateral relations, mainly through trade. Apart from the common agenda of the US, India and China are part of the BRICS bloc, which provides an official platform for better bilateral ties between them. Since its Independence, India has been more inclined towards Russia in terms of economic planning and foreign policy. Russia has been an unwavering friend of Pakistan, starting from its heroics during the 1971 war to date, where the two countries have successfully conducted international trade in their respective currencies without depending on US dollars. In this study, we estimate the long-run equilibrium relationship of the trade-to-GDP ratio of India, Russia, and China. The econometric specifications employed in this study are an auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model in a Time Series model framework. The ARDL Error Correction Method (ECM) would be used as the analytical tool to confirm (or not confirm) the long-run relationship of the Trade to GDP ratio of the three countries. The main variables of interest are collected from the IMF and World Bank. Tracing the long-run relationship of Trade to GDP of these three powerhouse economies would have ample policy implications in the global forum.