Evaluating the effectiveness of military intervention strategies in urban crime prevention in Namibia: The case of informal settlements in Windhoek

Urban expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa has outpaced state capacity, fuelling a sharp rise in crime, especially in informal settlements where governance remains weak. Namibia stands as a case in point. High youth unemployment, deep poverty, and limited police presence have pushed the Namibian Defence Force (NDF) into civilian policing roles, as seen in operations like Hornkranz and Kalahari Desert. This military involvement has sparked ongoing legal and human rights debates, mainly due to minimal civilian oversight. This study assesses the effectiveness and sustainability of military-led public safety efforts in Windhoek’s Havana informal settlement. The research pursues four objectives: (1) analyse crime rate trends before, during, and after military deployments; (2) investigate public perceptions and lived experiences of military presence; (3) evaluate the legal, ethical, and institutional frameworks guiding military involvement; and (4) identify key challenges and offer policy recommendations for urban security. Using a mixed-methods design, the study combines quantitative data from 356 resident surveys and official crime records with qualitative insights from 41 key informant interviews, focus groups, and household discussions. Civil-Military Relations Theory and Routine Activity Theory inform the analysis. Findings show short-term drops in reported crime and increased feelings of safety, but these gains vanish once the military withdraws. Lasting security improvement demands stronger legal frameworks, clear institutional roles, effective oversight, and real community participation.