Energy Resources as a Determinant of Currency Stability: Transformation of Pricing Mechanisms Amid Geopolitical Segmentation

Amidst escalating geopolitical turbulence, the contemporary global financial architecture is confronting the exhaustion of the liberal-integration paradigm, precipitating profound market fragmentation. This study addresses the qualitative metamorphosis of energy resources, which are transitioning from neutral market assets into foundational determinants of currency stability and national sovereignty. Consequently, there is a critical need to re-evaluate monetary-financial transmission mechanisms operating under the «paralysis» of traditional cross-border arbitrage and the erosion of the «law of one price» driven by institutional barriers. The research aims to provide a theoretical explication and empirical verification of the regional segmentation of the global energy space, while assessing the scale of price formation deformation under systemic geopolitical shocks. The study is underpinned by the author’s «three belts» concept of currency-energy dependence, which categorizes nations based on their adaptation patterns to fragmentation. The econometric design is implemented in Python, utilizing weekly data for the 2018–2025 period. The methodological protocol incorporates the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test to identify stochastic trends and the Chow test to detect structural breaks at institutional inflection points. The theoretical significance of this work lies in the formulation of a new analytical paradigm for studying financial sovereignty based on the commodity-backing of currencies. The practical utility of the findings pertains to the precision-tuning of macroeconomic regulatory instruments and the calibration of fiscal rule algorithms amidst the disintegration of global settlement circuits. The empirical analysis mathematically verifies the global market’s transition toward a «geopolitical segmentation» model, evidenced by a systemic inversion of market correlations between oil prices and the US Dollar Index. The findings statistically validate the emergence of a persistent «geopolitical discount» as a structural constant and the «decoupling» of national exchange rates from global benchmarks. Ultimately, the study substantiates the rise of a new architecture of inter-market linkages, where traditional market balancing mechanisms are superseded by institutional filters and autonomous value systems.