Three Pre-registered Null Results for EEG Binary Transition Rate as an Aging Biomarker

The Ze Vectors Theory (ZeVT) predicts that the binary transition rate v of binarised neural signals approaches a universal reference value v* ≈ 0.456 in healthy young individuals and decreases with aging. We report three pre-registered confirmatory tests of this prediction in resting-state EEG. Study 1 tested v-derived chi_Ze (χ_Ze) in the gamma band (25–35 Hz) in the Dortmund Vital Study (N = 60; d = 0.422, p = 0.113). Study 2 pre-registered (OSF osf.io/9m3yx) a confirmatory alpha band (8–13 Hz) test in MPI-LEMON (N = 30; d = 0.217, p = 0.558). Study 3 pre-registered (OSF osf.io/qhtz7) a confirmatory delta band (1–4 Hz) test of v directly in the Dortmund Vital Study (N = 60; d = −0.002, p = 0.995), motivated by a post-hoc pilot signal (d = 0.913, p = 0.036, N = 24) that did not replicate. Across all three studies, no significant age-related difference in v or χ_Ze was found (all p > 0.10). The null series is consistent with statistical artefact (winner's curse) rather than a genuine effect. A theoretical diagnosis reveals that the χ_Ze formula is only discriminative when individual subjects' v values straddle v, a condition met only in the gamma band; for lower frequencies *v*