Institutionalizing Disaster Risk Reduction in Fragile States: Local Governance Capacity, Conflict Insecurity, and Community Resilience in Lower Juba, Somalia

Fragile and conflict-affected states face compounded disaster risks where weak governance structures intersect with climate stressors and armed violence. This study examines how local governance capacity influences community resilience through the institutionalization of disaster risk reduction, and under what conditions conflict insecurity moderates this relationship, in Lower Juba, Somalia. Drawing on adaptive governance theory, institutional theory, and community resilience frameworks, the study tests a moderated mediation model using survey data from 400 households across four drought- and conflict-affected communities. Confirmatory factor analysis validated the four-factor structure of the constructs, with a comparative fit index of 0.96 and a root mean square error of approximation of 0.05. Bootstrapped mediation analysis with 5,000 samples revealed that disaster risk reduction institutionalization partially mediates the relationship between governance capacity and community resilience, with an indirect effect of β = 0.28 and a 95% confidence interval of [0.19, 0.39], accounting for 53.8% of the total effect. Moderation analysis showed that conflict insecurity significantly weakens the positive association between governance capacity and resilience, with a change in R-squared of 0.04 and p = 0.003. Findings demonstrate that governance capacity enhances resilience primarily when disaster risk reduction mechanisms are institutionalized, yet persistent insurgent insecurity undermines institutional effectiveness. The study contributes rare empirical evidence from a highly under-researched fragile setting. It offers context-specific policy guidance on integrating conflict-sensitive disaster risk reduction in sub-Saharan Africa.