METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING THE SHADOW ECONOMY IN THE SYSTEM OF RISK-ORIENTED ECONOMIC SECURITY MANAGEMENT

The purpose of the study is to substantiate the methodological framework for assessing the shadow economy as an information and analytical basis for risk-oriented economic security management at the level of the state and business entities. Particular attention is paid to the transition from the formal calculation of a single aggregate indicator to the identification of sectors, markets, transactions and groups of business entities in which unrecorded economic activity generates increased fiscal, financial, competitive, institutional and compliance risks. The study applies structural-functional, classification, comparative, scenario-based, calculation-analytical and risk-profiling methods. The empirical basis includes Ukrainian legal acts, official statistical and analytical materials on the non-observed economy, data on the level of the shadow economy in Ukraine in 2021, open data on Ukraine's nominal GDP in 2025, as well as academic publications on financial security, digitalization, resilience and de-shadowing policy. The results show that the assessment of the shadow economy should not be reduced to a single aggregate percentage of GDP, since such an indicator does not reveal the structure, sources or managerial criticality of the relevant risks. The article proposes classifying assessment methods according to three interrelated criteria: level of coverage, information base and logic of calculation. It is argued that monetary, resource-based, balance, commodity-flow, indicator, model-based and mixed methods reflect different aspects of shadow economic activity; therefore, their results require substantive reconciliation rather than mechanical comparison. The study identifies the main methodological limitations of such assessment: uncertainty in defining the object of measurement, the latent nature of shadow transactions, the risk of double counting, insufficient coverage of digital transactions, wartime distortions of statistical comparability and interpretation risks. Based on Ukraine's nominal GDP in 2025, a demonstration scenario calculation is provided. Under conditional scenarios of 20%, 30% and 40%, the potential volume of shadow economic activity may amount to UAH 1,786.2 billion, UAH 2,679.4 billion and UAH 3,572.5 billion, respectively. Under the baseline scenario, the conditional fiscal reserve may range from UAH 80.4 billion to UAH 144.7 billion, depending on the realistically administrable share and the effective tax burden. The scientific novelty of the article lies in improving the logic of assessing the shadow economy by combining statistical, indicator-based, scenario and profile-oriented approaches. The study further develops the rationale for moving from a general macroeconomic indicator to interval estimates, sectoral profiles and micro-level indicators of business entity risk. The practical significance of the results lies in their potential use by public authorities for setting priorities in de-shadowing policy, updating the indicator base of economic security and selecting proportionate response instruments. For businesses, the proposed logic may be used in developing compliance systems, conducting counterparty due diligence, managing supply chains, assessing tax and reputational risks, and protecting against unfair competition.