Educational Persistence and Dropout Risks in the Transition to Junior Schools under Kenya’s Competency-Based Curriculum: A Case of Garissa Township

The transition from primary to junior school is a critical phase in students' educational trajectories, marked by heightened vulnerability to dropout, particularly in marginalized contexts. In Kenya, the implementation of the Competency-Based Curriculum (CBC) has introduced new challenges, especially in under-resourced regions like Garissa Township, where socio-economic, cultural, and systemic barriers exacerbate dropout risks. The study objective was to examine the transition rates of primary school students to junior school using 5D Model of educational transition in Garissa County. Using academic records from Grades 1 to 7(n = 326) the target population, the study modelled time-to-dropout, with "time" defined as grades completed and "event" as non-transition to Grade 7. Cox proportional hazards regression and Kaplan-Meier estimates reveal significant gender disparities, with male students facing a 1.74-fold higher dropout hazard than females at p = 0.016. Survival probabilities decline sharply in later grades, with only 48.7% of the cohort projected to transition to Grade 6 (95% CI: 41.7% - 56.9%), and a pronounced attrition spike between Grades 4 - 5. By Grade 6, male students’ dropout probability of 58.7% far exceeds females’ at 39.9%. The findings underscore Grade 6 as a critical intervention point and highlight systemic inequities in CBC implementation. The study recommends targeted strategies, including community sensitization, academic support programs, and infrastructure investment, to mitigate dropout risks and promote equitable educational outcomes in arid and semi-arid regions.