Drivers of Maize Import Dependency in East Africa: An Empirical Panel Data Analysis

Maize is the backbone of food security in East Africa, providing daily nourishment and income for millions of households. Yet, many countries in the region still depend heavily on maize imports, leaving them vulnerable to global price swings and supply disruptions. This study explores what drives that dependency in six East African countries: Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Somalia, and Djibouti, between 2000 and 2022. Using secondary data from FAOSTAT and the World Bank, a fixed-effects panel model was applied to examine how domestic production, population growth, and rainfall affect maize import dependency. Data analysis was carried out using EViews 12. The model performed strongly (R² = 0.822, F = 74.55, p < 0.001). Results show that higher domestic maize production and population growth both significantly reduce reliance on imports, suggesting that improved productivity and effective use of the growing labor force can strengthen local food supply Rainfall, which is crucial for agricultural production, also did not have a direct statistical effect when production and demography were accounted for. Based on the analysis, the paper concludes that improving the role of inputs, climate-smart agricultural practices, youth inclusion in agricultural production, and a cooperative approach to regional trade remain critical to lowering dependence on maize imports and enhancing food self-sufficiency in East Africa.