Zero-Emission Ports and Public Health: Forecasting Avoided Mortality and Morbidity in the San Francisco Bay Area Post-2025

Maritime port operations are active sources of air pollution through combustion, creating enduring disparities in the health of local community members. The state regulations of California and the Bay Area Air Quality Management District policies require the implementation of zero-emission technologies in handling cargo and harbor craft, with significant compliance requirements by 2025. This analysis measures the expected population health impacts, premature deaths, and avoided morbidity in the San Francisco Bay Area after the full criteria of full port electrification have been met in 2025. We used a Health Impact Assessment framework that combined ambient monitoring information (2021-2024), proportional source-receptor modelling, as well as epidemiologically-based Concentration-Response Functions. The economic benefits were estimated based on the 2024 Value of Statistical Life. By 2020, zero-emission requirements are estimated to cut port-driven PM2.5 emissions 58 percent, lowering population-weighted exposure within 5 km of the port by 0.83 µg/m3. This amounts to 12 premature fatalities, 76 emergency room visits on asthma cases, and 2,300 averted lost workdays annually, which is a monetized value of 136.6 million on the public health benefits. Main shortcomings would be simplified dispersion modeling and full regulatory compliance by the year 2026. The mandates show significant, quantifiable health co-benefits that justify regulatory expediency in overburdened communities, and are a model that can be replicated in North American ports.