Using Predictive Learning Analytics to Support Early Identification and Intervention for Students with Disabilities in U.S. K–12 Special Education: A Scoping Review

The rapid expansion of predictive learning analytics (PLA) in education has generated considerable interest in its potential to support early identification of and intervention for students with disabilities in U.S. K–12 settings. Despite growth in the broader learning analytics literature, no scoping review has systematically mapped how PLA has been applied specifically within K–12 special education in the United States. This gap is particularly consequential given that approximately 8.2 million students ages 3 to 21 were served under the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA) in 2024, a 12.6 percent increase since 2019, placing unprecedented demand on identification and intervention systems. This scoping review, guided by the PRISMA Extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) framework, synthesizes peer-reviewed empirical studies, conceptual papers, and policy-relevant literature published between 2010 and 2025. Of 917 initial records identified, 38 sources were included, with nine of the 13 IDEA categories showing no PLA research. Four research questions guide the review: (1) What types of predictive models have been applied to support disability identification in K–12 special education? (2) Which disability categories have received the most attention? (3) How have PLA-generated predictions been linked to intervention strategies? and (4) What ethical, equity, and legal concerns have been raised? Findings reveal that PLA applications in this context are nascent, methodologically heterogeneous, and concentrated in specific learning disabilities and autism spectrum disorder. Critical gaps include limited attention to IDEA’s legal framework, underrepresentation of racial and disability equity concerns within prediction models, and weak integration with Multi-Tiered Systems of Support (MTSS). Implications for research, practice, and policy are discussed.