DIVERSIFICAÇÃO AGRÍCOLA E TRANSIÇÃO DE CULTURAS ALIMENTARES PARA CULTURAS COMERCIAIS ENTRE 2020 E 2024 NO DISTRITO DE MARÍNGUE

This study examines the agricultural production dynamics in Maríngue District from 2020 to 2024, with a focus on the transition from staple food crops (cereals) to commercial crops (oilseeds). Production data from 16,575 farmers across 228,601 hectares were analyzed using descriptive statistics, concentration indices (Shannon-Weaver and Herfindahl-Hirschman), and multiple regression modelling. Results indicate stable and predictable growth in cereal production (+24%), contrasted with a substantial increase in oilseed production (+145%), revealing a clear trend toward agricultural diversification. The adjusted coefficient of determination (R²ₐⱼ = 0.82) confirms the adequacy of the regression model, while the t-Student test shows statistical significance for precipitation, market price, and cultivated area (p < 0.05). Overall, findings suggest that the local agricultural sector is undergoing a structural transition— from a subsistence-based system to a more competitive and market-oriented production model—without jeopardizing staple food availability. The study concludes that agricultural diversification simultaneously enhances agrarian sustainability and regional competitiveness, provided it is supported by public policies that ensure productive stability and socioeconomic resilience.