Uncertainty-Aware Model Validation Framework for Pharmaceutical Process Development

Mathematical models are increasingly used in pharmaceutical process development within quality-by-design (QbD) frameworks to reduce experimental effort and enable rational process design. However, model validation is still often based on deterministic performance indicators, which do not explicitly account for experimental variability, measurement noise, and model uncertainty. This work proposes an uncertainty-aware framework for model validation in pharmaceutical processes that quantifies predictive reliability in probabilistic terms, consistent with regulatory concepts. The framework explicitly integrates uncertainty in operating conditions, measurements, and model parameters, and evaluates model performance based on the probability that prediction satisfy predefined acceptance criteria rather than on single-point accuracy indicators. An in-silico case study of crystallization was performed to demonstrate the approach, where synthetic experimental data with controlled uncertainty were generated. This enables systematic assessment of the effect of data quality, data quantity, and methods of uncertainty analysis on model validity results. Overall, the proposed framework provides a structured and robust approach for uncertainty-aware, regulatory-aligned model validation in pharmaceutical process development.